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Stock Commander precon

Death Toll

Winter, Cynical Opportunist

Duskmourn: House of Horror Commander / 27 Sep 2024 / 100 cards

Art by Andrey Kuzinskiy, © Wizards of the Coast.

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Read the evidence

How it compares

Sources & method ↗
Experimental

Meta rank

#3157.8 / 100

Real-game percentile 54.2. Simulation percentile 61.4.

84 precons have at least 20 games in real results and each published engine. Higher scores mean stronger ordering across those sources.

50% real-game percentile + 50% mean simulation percentile. This score is an ordering, not a win rate.

Human tables

Real-game win rate

21.5%176 stock games

Playgroup.gg, fetched 20 Oct 2026. Normalised to four players; pilots and opponents differ from the simulation. This is observed evidence, not a personal win-rate forecast.

Phase simulation

Model win rate

26.9%158 games / #57

Published interval coverage: 90% (game bootstrap). Versus 174 stock precons, four-player pods. Analysed 24 Oct 2026.

90% interval: 23.8%–30.8%.

Rank range 33–86. Observed wins: 25.9%.

Upgradeability

Package ungraded0/5 commander configurations graded. Unassessed options may be stronger.

5 colour-compatible in-box commander configurations inventoried 2026-10-28. 5 have validated simulation lists. Inventory complete for the checked stock list.

This package includes every inventoried stock-compatible commander configuration. Highest supported upgrade grade describes the named assessed options, not overall deck power or a proven best commander. Unassessed options may be stronger. Outside commander swaps are excluded from the package summary.

Other included legends

These cannot lead the complete unchanged stock pool with a checked configuration: Titania, Nature's Force.

Winter, Cynical Opportunist

Download Winter, Cynical Opportunist comparison list. 100/100 card copies retained. Legality and colours checked 2026-10-28. Any stock results elsewhere on this page belong to the reference catalog snapshot, not to alternative commander lists.

Ungraded

No source-backed upgrade assessment is recorded for this stock commander and theme.

Yama's editorial judgment of improvement options for the stated commander configuration while retaining the precon’s main theme. Based on the cited guides, checked card examples and commander restrictions. No upgrade win-rate estimate is available. Audited 2026-10-27. Catalog list.

Commander rules: Winter, Cynical Opportunist.

What 1–5 means
GradeMeaning
1: MinimalIndividual replacements do little for the main plan; its limiting mechanism remains.
2: NarrowUseful replacements exist, but a commander or theme restriction blocks most further gains.
3: WorkableA documented package improves the plan, with a persistent setup, combat or card-pool limit.
4: BroadSeveral compatible packages improve the plan and its finish; important restrictions still apply.
5: ExceptionalThe commander supplies repeatable resources and a direct finish; on-theme additions strengthen both.

These are Yama’s ordinal judgments, with no measured win-rate gain attached. A grade belongs to the stated commander configuration and retained main theme. Assess on-theme commander swaps separately; a replacement strategy is a separate deck build. Missing evidence means ungraded. Targeted changes refine the main package; Moderate replaces several packages; Substantial removes much of the shell. Effort describes work, not a budget or Commander bracket.

Reviews and upgrade guides

Commander results

Playgroup commander results include stock and modified lists, mixed pod sizes and opponents. The raw rate is wins divided by games, not four-player normalised. Partner commanders are separate observations, not a pair's rate. Do not subtract a stock-precon rate to estimate upgrade gain.

Playgroup.gg / Arcane Digital B.V., aggregate statistics under CC BY 4.0. Source refresh dates are not provided by this endpoint.

Other commander options

Each option has its own assessment and comparison list. Stock results elsewhere on this page are not results for these alternative lists.

Grist, the Hunger Tide: Ungraded

Alternative commander from the box

Download Grist, the Hunger Tide comparison list. 100/100 card copies retained. Legality and colours checked 2026-10-28. No matched simulation results are attached to this commander option.

Ungraded

Included commander option: leadership and colour compatibility checked. Theme fit and upgrade potential have not been assessed; no grade or simulation result is assigned.

Catalog list.

Commander rules: Grist, the Hunger Tide.

Reviews and upgrade guides

No review or upgrade guide has been assessed for this list.

Commander results

Ishkanah, Grafwidow: Ungraded

Alternative commander from the box

Download Ishkanah, Grafwidow comparison list. 100/100 card copies retained. Legality and colours checked 2026-10-28. No matched simulation results are attached to this commander option.

Ungraded

Included commander option: leadership and colour compatibility checked. Theme fit and upgrade potential have not been assessed; no grade or simulation result is assigned.

Catalog list.

Commander rules: Ishkanah, Grafwidow.

Reviews and upgrade guides

No review or upgrade guide has been assessed for this list.

Commander results

Old Stickfingers: Ungraded

Alternative commander from the box

Download Old Stickfingers comparison list. 100/100 card copies retained. Legality and colours checked 2026-10-28. No matched simulation results are attached to this commander option.

Ungraded

Included commander option: leadership and colour compatibility checked. Theme fit and upgrade potential have not been assessed; no grade or simulation result is assigned.

Catalog list.

Commander rules: Old Stickfingers.

Reviews and upgrade guides

No review or upgrade guide has been assessed for this list.

Commander results

Rendmaw, Creaking Nest: Ungraded

Alternative commander from the box

Download Rendmaw, Creaking Nest comparison list. 100/100 card copies retained. Legality and colours checked 2026-10-28. No matched simulation results are attached to this commander option.

Ungraded

Included commander option: leadership and colour compatibility checked. Theme fit and upgrade potential have not been assessed; no grade or simulation result is assigned.

Catalog list.

Commander rules: Rendmaw, Creaking Nest.

Reviews and upgrade guides

No review or upgrade guide has been assessed for this list.

Commander results

Market references

What it costs

Sealed deck

$59.03TCGplayer / TCGCSV26 Oct 2026

Singles replacement

$62.12TCGplayer / Scryfall28 Oct 2026

100 priced copies; 0 without a price. Market references are not store quotes, proof of availability or resale offers.

Known Phase card support gaps (4)

Convert to Slime, Grist, the Hunger Tide, Polluted Cistern, Ursine Monstrosity. Catalog coverage is separate from published run confidence.

The original 100 cards

Stock decklist

Reviews & upgrades on EDHREC ↗

Catalog updated 22 Oct 2026. MTGJSON source. Images and card details from Scryfall.

Commander 1

Main deck 99

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