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Stock Commander precon

Painbow

Jared Carthalion

Dominaria United Commander / 9 Sep 2022 / 100 cards

Art by Manuel Castañón, © Wizards of the Coast.

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Read the evidence

How it compares

Sources & method ↗
Experimental

Meta rank

#7422.0 / 100

Real-game percentile 25.9. Simulation percentile 18.1.

84 precons have at least 20 games in real results and each published engine. Higher scores mean stronger ordering across those sources.

50% real-game percentile + 50% mean simulation percentile. This score is an ordering, not a win rate.

Human tables

Real-game win rate

19.0%83 stock games

Playgroup.gg, fetched 20 Oct 2026. Normalised to four players; pilots and opponents differ from the simulation. This is observed evidence, not a personal win-rate forecast.

Phase simulation

Model win rate

20.8%160 games / #127Check limitations

Published interval coverage: 90% (game bootstrap). Versus 174 stock precons, four-player pods. Analysed 24 Oct 2026.

90% interval: 18.3%–23.4%.

Rank range 86–151. Observed wins: 16.9%.

Simulation limitations
  • The analysis flags engine/AI limitations or disagreement with real games for this deck.

Upgradeability

Package ungraded0/3 commander configurations graded. Unassessed options may be stronger.

3 colour-compatible in-box commander configurations inventoried 2026-10-28. 3 have validated simulation lists. Inventory complete for the checked stock list.

This package includes every inventoried stock-compatible commander configuration. Highest supported upgrade grade describes the named assessed options, not overall deck power or a proven best commander. Unassessed options may be stronger. Outside commander swaps are excluded from the package summary.

Other included legends

These cannot lead the complete unchanged stock pool with a checked configuration: Archelos, Lagoon Mystic, Atla Palani, Nest Tender, Illuna, Apex of Wishes, Nethroi, Apex of Death, Rienne, Angel of Rebirth, Selvala, Explorer Returned, Surrak Dragonclaw, Xyris, the Writhing Storm, Zaxara, the Exemplary.

Jared Carthalion

Download Jared Carthalion comparison list. 100/100 card copies retained. Legality and colours checked 2026-10-28. Any stock results elsewhere on this page belong to the reference catalog snapshot, not to alternative commander lists.

Ungraded

No source-backed upgrade assessment is recorded for this stock commander and theme.

Yama's editorial judgment of improvement options for the stated commander configuration while retaining the precon’s main theme. Based on the cited guides, checked card examples and commander restrictions. No upgrade win-rate estimate is available. Audited 2026-10-27. Catalog list.

Commander rules: Jared Carthalion.

What 1–5 means
GradeMeaning
1: MinimalIndividual replacements do little for the main plan; its limiting mechanism remains.
2: NarrowUseful replacements exist, but a commander or theme restriction blocks most further gains.
3: WorkableA documented package improves the plan, with a persistent setup, combat or card-pool limit.
4: BroadSeveral compatible packages improve the plan and its finish; important restrictions still apply.
5: ExceptionalThe commander supplies repeatable resources and a direct finish; on-theme additions strengthen both.

These are Yama’s ordinal judgments, with no measured win-rate gain attached. A grade belongs to the stated commander configuration and retained main theme. Assess on-theme commander swaps separately; a replacement strategy is a separate deck build. Missing evidence means ungraded. Targeted changes refine the main package; Moderate replaces several packages; Substantial removes much of the shell. Effort describes work, not a budget or Commander bracket.

Reviews and upgrade guides

No review or upgrade guide has been assessed for this list.

Commander results

Playgroup commander results include stock and modified lists, mixed pod sizes and opponents. The raw rate is wins divided by games, not four-player normalised. Partner commanders are separate observations, not a pair's rate. Do not subtract a stock-precon rate to estimate upgrade gain.

Playgroup.gg / Arcane Digital B.V., aggregate statistics under CC BY 4.0. Source refresh dates are not provided by this endpoint.

Other commander options

Each option has its own assessment and comparison list. Stock results elsewhere on this page are not results for these alternative lists.

Jenson Carthalion, Druid Exile: Ungraded

Alternative commander from the box

Download Jenson Carthalion, Druid Exile comparison list. 100/100 card copies retained. Legality and colours checked 2026-10-28. No matched simulation results are attached to this commander option.

Ungraded

Included commander option: leadership and colour compatibility checked. Theme fit and upgrade potential have not been assessed; no grade or simulation result is assigned.

Catalog list.

Commander rules: Jenson Carthalion, Druid Exile.

Reviews and upgrade guides

No review or upgrade guide has been assessed for this list.

Commander results

O-Kagachi, Vengeful Kami: Ungraded

Alternative commander from the box

Download O-Kagachi, Vengeful Kami comparison list. 100/100 card copies retained. Legality and colours checked 2026-10-28. No matched simulation results are attached to this commander option.

Ungraded

Included commander option: leadership and colour compatibility checked. Theme fit and upgrade potential have not been assessed; no grade or simulation result is assigned.

Catalog list.

Commander rules: O-Kagachi, Vengeful Kami.

Reviews and upgrade guides

No review or upgrade guide has been assessed for this list.

Commander results

Market references

What it costs

Sealed deck

$114.97TCGplayer / TCGCSV26 Oct 2026

Singles replacement

$76.69TCGplayer / Scryfall28 Oct 2026

99 priced copies; 1 without a price; total is partial. Market references are not store quotes, proof of availability or resale offers.

Known Phase card support gaps (4)

Fallaji Wayfarer, Jared Carthalion, O-Kagachi, Vengeful Kami, Primeval Spawn. Catalog coverage is separate from published run confidence.

The original 100 cards

Stock decklist

Reviews & upgrades on EDHREC ↗

Catalog updated 22 Oct 2026. MTGJSON source. Images and card details from Scryfall.

Commander 1

Main deck 99

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